A Soldier's Perspective

Patriot Measuring Stability and Security

With little fanfare, the Department of Defense released its mandatory report to Congress on the situation in Iraq. While I am sure that the media and defeatist politicians on Capitol Hill will sift through and find as much negativity in it as possible, I would like to highlight the positive indicators published in the report.

First is that of ALL known VBIEDs in Iraq, almost 70% of them were found and cleared. Only 30% of them were able to hit their intended targets. This is a very significant number. During the reporting period, the average number of improvised explosive devices found and cleared increased 15% from the previous quarter. Without the "surge", these finds may not have been possible.

National confidence in the Government of Iraq’s (GoI) ability to improve the security environment reached its highest level (63%) in twelve months. That's higher than the confidence level of OUR government considering the poll numbers for the President are at 29% and Congress's rating is only 23% (provided you believe these things).

Sunni tribal resistance to al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) along the Euphrates River Valley has been growing and—combined with a robust Coalition presence in Fallujah and Ramadi and increased effectiveness of Iraqi forces—is hindering AQI operations. As a result of this tribal resistance, violence in Anbar decreased markedly during the reporting period. However, terrorist attacks increased in other areas as AQI and other groups attempted to spread sectarian conflict.

Since January 2007, Coalition-reported murders in Baghdad proper have decreased by 51% as militia activity was disrupted by security operations. Unfortunately, all you will probably hear about is that aggregately throughout Iraq, the total number of attacks on Coalition forces, the ISF, and Iraqi civilians increased by 2% in the February through May reporting period compared with the previous quarter. One thing you have to take in context here is that there are more Coalition forces to target as well with the "surge". While the volatile Anbar province and Baghdad have dramatically decreased violence, the insurgents have moved onto other locations that aren't as well covered. The good news here is that with Baghdad pacified, the government can strengthen itself without having to worry about their own safety. Once they are strong, they can begin to reach out with their strengthened authority and resolve and make positive changes throughout the country. The total number of attacks in Anbar has dropped 34% since December 2006, with Ramadi—where attacks are at a two-year low—accounting for the largest decline in violence levels. Attacks in Anbar have dropped from 35 per day in the previous reporting period to just under 26, dipping below average daily attacks in Salah ad Din Province.

According to the report, "Public perception of security is shaped by the confidence the people have in the government and its security forces, as well as the perception they have of neighborhood safety. On security, Iraqis continue to feel more positive at the local level than they do at the national level. The perceptions of safety inside and outside neighborhoods correlate with their perception of local and national tensions. Within Baghdad, the Joint Security Stations contribute to this improvement by providing local tip hotlines, and local security force responsiveness to these calls provide tangible, visible proof that the security forces are responsible to and for the people. These actions may contribute to the continued support for the dissolution of militias, not only in Baghdad, but nationwide as well." The number of tips to Iraqi and coalition forces from Iraqi citizens has increased 300% in the past year.

In a nationwide poll, broken down by province, 77% of Iraqi respondents say they "feel safe and secure in my neighborhood".

For the rest of the report, good and bad, you can read the rest yourselves. What I did not highlight are the improvements in political structure, government services, infrastructure, health, and education. As you pay attention to the media frenzy as this report gets circulated among the media, try to pay attention to how many of these improvements are noted. I am willing to bet it won't be much.